Sep 13, Kathmandu - The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources, and Irrigation has commenced a scientific investigation into the catastrophic floods in the Bhote Koshi River of Rasuwa. The study aims to uncover the scientific basis and evidence behind the disaster, focusing on the origin, contributing factors, and potential role of climate change.

According to Minister Mohan Kumar Shakya, a committee comprising experts has been formed to conduct the study. The ministry’s decision aligns with the Water and Energy Commission’s proposal to examine the event not merely as an ordinary flood or heavy rainfall but as a possibly linked chain of geological, glacial, hydrological, and other risks developing sequentially in the high Himalayan region—a phenomenon described as a “series of disasters.”

Initial investigations by the Water and Energy Commission Secretariat have so far found insufficient scientific proof pinpointing the exact origin of the Rasuwa incident, how the disaster commenced physically, and how it propagated through the Bhote Koshi-Lhende River system to lower regions. The commission emphasizes the necessity of a scientific reconstruction of the entire event before attributing it to climate change.

The ministry’s study will be carried out in three phases:

1. First Phase: Analyzing the chronological and geographical impact from the high Himalayan region to the coastal areas, including glacier behavior, landslides, soil instability, avalanches, river flow, and flood interactions.
2. Second Phase: Identifying the immediate and underlying physical causes of the event.
3. Third Phase: Scientifically assessing how human-induced climate change may have influenced the risks, their severity, and preparedness levels.

Previously, an international scientific group, the ‘World Weather Attribution,’ linked Nepal’s September 2024 heavy rainfall, floods, and landslides to human-driven climate change. However, the Rasuwa flood’s distinct nature requires a separate, evidence-based study rather than direct comparison or preliminary conclusions.

Experts from fields such as glaciology, geology, geomorphology, hydrology, meteorology, remote sensing, disaster risk management, and climate science will participate in this comprehensive investigation. The study will also incorporate transboundary scientific data from China regarding the Himalayan and glacial systems and develop mechanisms for scientific cooperation and data exchange.

The high-level scientific committee will conduct field visits to the flood’s potential origin sites, capturing detailed images and videos, including drone and satellite observations as needed. The ministry has allocated two months for the committee to complete the study.