Oct 04, Kathmandu - Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday is shaping up as a fierce contest between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, in what analysts describe as one of the country’s most consequential political battles in recent years.

If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the two leading candidates will face each other in a runoff on October 25. Ten other candidates are also in the race but are expected to receive only limited support.

At 80, Lula is running for president for the seventh time and seeking a fourth term, though his previous presidencies were not consecutive. His main challenger, 45-year-old Flávio Bolsonaro, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and is considered a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump.

With about 159 million eligible voters, the election is widely seen as a choice that could shape Brazil’s economic and diplomatic direction.

Flávio Bolsonaro has made his ideological ties to Trump a central part of his campaign. He has called for Brazil to secure better agreements with the Trump administration in strategic sectors, including rare minerals. He has also pledged to secure the release of his father, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence over a case involving an alleged coup attempt, and help him return to politics.

Lula, meanwhile, has warned that the United States could interfere in Brazil’s domestic politics. His concerns have followed the Trump administration’s imposition of steep tariffs on Brazilian exports, revocation of the Brazilian ambassador’s visa in Washington, and sanctions against a Supreme Court justice involved in investigations related to Jair Bolsonaro.

Voters will also elect governors in all 27 states, state legislators, all 513 members of the federal Chamber of Deputies, and 54 of the Senate’s 81 members.

Political analyst Thomas Traumann said last-minute mistakes by candidates or their allies could sway undecided voters. Brazil’s deep political polarization, he added, has pushed the campaign toward accusations and personal attacks rather than policy debate.

Four years ago, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by a narrow margin of about 2.1 million votes. Since then, inflation, corruption allegations and political disputes are believed to have shifted voter sentiment.

Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in São Paulo, said some voters are uneasy about Lula’s age and long political career, though he remains a strong contender. Flávio Bolsonaro also faces challenges, including corruption allegations and criticism from religious groups. Analysts therefore expect a highly competitive election.