Asian Fuel Prices More Than Double as Middle East Tensions Disrupt Supply

Nov 02, Kathmandu - Fuel prices across Asian countries have more than doubled from pre-war levels as supply disruptions spread from crude oil to refining and shipping, according to a report by U.S. financial firm BlackRock.

The report said alternative shipping routes, inventories and strategic reserves initially helped cushion the impact of crude supply interruptions. But recent attacks targeting energy infrastructure and maritime routes in the Gulf have added further pressure to supply chains.

BlackRock said shortages are now being felt more acutely in refined fuels and shipping than in crude oil. Although crude supplies have partly recovered, disruptions to refining capacity and tanker transport continue to push fuel prices higher.

Brent crude climbed to $117 a barrel on October 23, its highest level since April. At the time the report was prepared, it had fallen 2.87% to $110.18 a barrel.

The energy crisis has also driven sharp gains in shares of refining and shipping companies. Refiners’ shares have risen about 160% this year, while oil tanker operators’ shares are up 120%. Shares of major oil and gas producers have gained 40%, the report said.

Europe is more exposed to the crisis than other regions. BlackRock estimates that the energy shock has reduced Europe’s gross domestic product by about 0.5%, compared with an impact of 0.1% in the United States.

European natural gas storage is around 75% full—the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011. With liquefied natural gas supplies disrupted, a colder-than-usual winter could push energy prices even higher. European energy prices have already risen 170% this year.

The report said the United States is comparatively insulated because it is a net energy exporter. Strong exports of technology products have also helped offset some of Asia’s rising energy import costs.

BlackRock expects countries to keep investing in alternative supply routes and energy infrastructure even after the Middle East conflict ends, potentially reshaping energy security for years. The investment required could intensify competition for capital and put further pressure on long-term government bond yields.